Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | RICH +275 COLO -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +5 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | RICH -1.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -0.9 (-4.1) | 145.3 (-22.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -1.7 (-6.7) | 147.4 (-24.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -1.3 (-6.3) | 149.7 (-26.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -1.3 (-6.3) | 149.3 (-26.3) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#35) | 7.5 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#152) | 0.50 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#165) | 0.42 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#168) | 0.459 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 55.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 51.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.35 | 1.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 64.5% |
| TOV% | 9.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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