Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UK -1600 JOES +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +8 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | UK -17.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+38.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -14.6 (-6.6) | 148.1 (+35.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -13.3 (-5.3) | 143.2 (+40.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -15.5 (-7.5) | 144.1 (+39.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -15.8 (-7.8) | 151.9 (+32.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#24) | 2.1 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#101) | -0.82 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#84) | -1.16 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#85) | 0.427 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.23 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 10.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 40.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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