Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | TULN +110 BRAD -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -0.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -1.0 (-2.0) | 154.2 (+2.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -1.2 (-1.8) | 144.9 (+12.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -0.6 (-2.4) | 147.3 (+9.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -0.1 (-3.1) | 149.7 (+7.3) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#66) | 7.1 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#81) | 2.62 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#90) | 3.42 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#181) | 0.774 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.7% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 16.7% | 19.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 38.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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