Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | TXST +162 MCN -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +11 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -11.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (-28.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -5.2 (-5.8) | 130.1 (-23.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -6.6 (-4.4) | 138.5 (-31.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -6.1 (-4.9) | 139.2 (-32.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -8.1 (-2.9) | 134.3 (-27.3) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 30-4 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 17-1 |
| Home | 9-4 | 18-0 |
| Away | 5-11 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 64.8 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#193) | 10.1 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#148) | 2.72 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#161) | 4.76 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#172) | 0.833 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 46.9% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 7.9% |
| ORB% | 40.7% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.6% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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