Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | WVU +138 SMU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WVU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +12 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -6.3 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -1.4 (-10.6) | 138.5 (-10.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -4.3 (-7.7) | 136.7 (-8.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -3.5 (-8.5) | 138.5 (-10.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -3.5 (-8.5) | 139.2 (-11.2) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WVU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-9 | 14-3 |
| Away | 0-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#233) | 3.5 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#225) | 0.29 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#204) | 1.11 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#270) | 0.549 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WVU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 16.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 40.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.2% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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