He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Chicago State Cougars
77 – 78 OT
FINAL Neutral Cancun Challenge
Northern Colorado Bears
Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya (Neutral) · November 21, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UNCO -5.5 Home covered
O/U 139.5 Over
Money CHST +188 / UNCO -250
Model Predictions
Spread Total CHST win
Actual UNCO +1 155 Lost
Massey UNCO -0.1 (-0.9) — —
Massey Totals — 127.5 (+27.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 35% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 13% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNCO -1.3 (+0.3) 133.7 (+21.3) 44% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNCO -0.5 (-0.5) 131.5 (+23.5) 50% ✓
Baseline ML UNCO -0.3 (-0.7) 132.1 (+22.9) 58% ✗
Baseline Plus ML CHST -0.1 (-1.1) 135.3 (+19.7) 55% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CHST UNCO
Overall 13-19 19-14
Conference 0-0 12-6
Home 6-5 11-3
Away 5-12 7-8
Neutral 2-2 1-3
Last 5 1-4 0-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 65.2 79.0
Avg Pts Against 71.6 78.2
Massey -7.5 (#310) -7.4 (#307)
Bradley-Terry -1.98 (#323) -1.36 (#286)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.33 (#331) -1.41 (#256)
RPI 0.343 (#330) 0.340 (#331)
Shooting & Four Factors CHST UNCO
FG% 36.6% 39.8%
3PT% 24.2% 26.9%
REB / G 33.2 35.5
OREB / G 10.8 9.0
AST / TO 0.62 0.71
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 40.7% 45.8%
TOV% 18.9% 18.7%
ORB% 27.3% 22.5%
FT Rate 25.8% 22.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.9% 51.7%
Opp TOV% 21.2% 16.0%
DRB% 67.5% 77.9%
Opp FT Rate 27.5% 34.8%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.