Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | CHST +188 UNCO -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +1 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -0.1 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (+27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -1.3 (+0.3) | 133.7 (+21.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -0.5 (-0.5) | 131.5 (+23.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -0.3 (-0.7) | 132.1 (+22.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHST -0.1 (-1.1) | 135.3 (+19.7) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#310) | -7.4 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#323) | -1.36 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.33 (#331) | -1.41 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.343 (#330) | 0.340 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 24.2% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.7% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 34.8% |
Game Analysis
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