Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | BRY -200 HOW +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRY +6 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | BRY -12.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -6.3 (-0.3) | 147.4 (-19.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRY -6.8 (-0.8) | 145.0 (-17.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRY -7.9 (-1.9) | 145.5 (-17.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRY -7.9 (-1.9) | 146.7 (-18.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRY | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 9-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#137) | -2.2 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#169) | -0.41 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#142) | 0.01 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#192) | 0.494 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRY | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 35.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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