Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -800 GB +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GB +1 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -15.9 (-16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -11.7 (-12.7) | 131.0 (-24.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -10.2 (-11.2) | 130.6 (-23.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -11.5 (-12.5) | 129.8 (-22.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -11.9 (-12.9) | 128.0 (-21.0) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#125) | -5.4 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#124) | -2.67 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#110) | -5.65 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#113) | 0.297 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 19.6% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 17.2% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 6.9% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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