Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | USD -275 NAVY +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +8 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | USD -16.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -9.1 (-1.1) | 130.0 (-4.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -12.3 (-4.3) | 134.1 (-8.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -13.9 (-5.9) | 133.9 (-7.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -12.7 (-4.7) | 133.2 (-7.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#152) | -7.5 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#137) | -2.55 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#164) | -4.40 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#182) | 0.373 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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