Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | FIU +215 LMU -267 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +1 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | LMU -6.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-30.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -4.3 (+3.3) | 144.4 (-23.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -3.7 (+2.7) | 146.3 (-25.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -3.7 (+2.7) | 149.1 (-28.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -4.6 (+3.6) | 147.9 (-26.9) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-8 |
| Away | 1-12 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#292) | 0.5 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#302) | -1.46 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.82 (#309) | -2.11 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#252) | 0.366 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.1% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.6% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 59.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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