Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO -200 CARK +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -3.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -3.0 (-1.0) | 143.6 (-5.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -3.9 (-1.9) | 140.8 (-2.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -3.2 (-1.2) | 141.3 (-3.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -4.1 (-2.1) | 142.7 (-4.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2024 | SEMO 77 – 73 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 5-10 |
| Away | 1-14 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 80.3 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#340) | -6.9 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#306) | -3.31 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#303) | -4.84 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#166) | 0.355 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 11.3% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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