Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | AKR +100 USU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +3 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -4.8 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -2.2 (-0.8) | 144.1 (-17.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -2.4 (-0.6) | 142.6 (-15.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -1.8 (-1.2) | 144.2 (-17.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -2.5 (-0.5) | 145.2 (-18.2) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#113) | 8.2 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#63) | 1.25 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#78) | 2.03 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#254) | 0.584 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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