Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -175 OAK +148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +7 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | OAK -4.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -0.0 (-7.0) | 144.7 (+4.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -2.1 (-4.9) | 142.3 (+6.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -2.1 (-4.9) | 143.9 (+5.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -2.1 (-4.9) | 146.3 (+2.7) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#217) | 2.6 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#212) | -0.45 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#208) | -0.60 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#271) | 0.508 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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