Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | LT -800 SUU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +14 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | LT -13.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-35.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -8.2 (+5.8) | 137.1 (-17.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -10.3 (+3.7) | 147.7 (-27.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -10.9 (+3.1) | 150.1 (-30.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -9.6 (+4.4) | 147.3 (-27.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 5-15 |
| Home | 14-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#53) | 1.7 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#18) | -1.29 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.20 (#7) | -1.66 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#32) | 0.309 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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