Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | SPU +188 UML -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -6.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -0.6 (-7.4) | 125.3 (+4.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -4.4 (-12.4) | 132.3 (-2.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -3.6 (-11.6) | 132.9 (-2.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -3.5 (-11.5) | 130.4 (-0.4) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | SPU 68 – 66 UML |
| Nov 8, 2024 | UML 81 – 74 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#46) | 9.3 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#143) | 1.88 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#137) | 2.90 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#180) | 0.588 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 47.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 41.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 45.5% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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