Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -425 UML +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -17.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (-27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -10.8 (-8.8) | 143.6 (-9.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -12.6 (-10.6) | 148.0 (-14.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -13.1 (-11.1) | 148.9 (-14.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -13.4 (-11.4) | 147.5 (-13.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2024 | UML 81 – 74 SPU |
| Nov 21, 2023 | UML 69 – 61 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#261) | -16.4 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#274) | -3.01 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#275) | -4.47 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.346 (#341) | 0.375 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 27.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 61.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 56.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.9% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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