Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -163 ACU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +18 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -1.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.8 (+31.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -1.1 (+16.9) | 135.1 (+20.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -1.5 (+16.5) | 130.3 (+25.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -1.4 (+16.6) | 130.6 (+25.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -1.1 (+16.9) | 131.2 (+24.8) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#98) | 2.7 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#140) | 0.79 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#154) | 1.41 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#186) | 0.572 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.7% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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