Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NE -210 GASO +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +17 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | NE -11.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+29.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -5.9 (+11.1) | 139.9 (+29.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -8.3 (+8.7) | 141.2 (+27.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NE -8.4 (+8.6) | 141.8 (+27.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -8.4 (+8.6) | 139.8 (+29.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-13 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#194) | -12.3 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#163) | -2.58 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#162) | -3.82 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#139) | 0.260 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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