Betting Lines
| Spread | STET -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | STET -165 CMU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +10 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | STET -5.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -4.4 (+5.6) | 136.1 (-4.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -2.3 (+7.7) | 136.6 (-4.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -2.3 (+7.7) | 137.0 (-5.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -2.3 (+7.7) | 133.3 (-1.3) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#178) | -5.3 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#218) | -0.08 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#250) | -0.24 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#225) | 0.525 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 10.8% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 61.5% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.5% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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