Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | EKU -700 PV +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +12 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -3.8 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -2.3 (-9.7) | 145.1 (-5.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -3.3 (-8.7) | 147.1 (-7.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -3.5 (-8.5) | 152.1 (-12.1) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#313) | 4.1 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#339) | 1.77 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.52 (#335) | 2.81 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.167 (#362) | 0.604 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.4% | 40.9% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 8.9% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 1.4% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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