Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | CLT +155 UCF -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | CLT -1.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.6 (+24.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -0.4 (-2.6) | 126.6 (+18.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -1.2 (-4.2) | 128.0 (+17.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -0.7 (-3.7) | 128.2 (+16.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -0.3 (-3.3) | 129.8 (+15.2) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-8 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#85) | 3.9 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#26) | 0.86 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.27 (#22) | 1.20 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.707 (#14) | 0.533 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 42.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.