Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | APP +126 UNCW -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +30 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -7.0 (+37.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.9 (+32.9) | 150.4 (-8.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.2 (+33.2) | 148.9 (-6.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -2.3 (+32.3) | 148.1 (-6.1) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -3.2 (+33.2) | 148.9 (-6.9) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2024 | UNCW 76 – 61 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#235) | 4.2 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#252) | 1.75 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#257) | 2.41 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#287) | 0.521 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.6% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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