Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | HOF -400 BUF +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +34 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -14.7 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+34.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -10.6 (+23.4) | 138.9 (+31.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -12.1 (+21.9) | 135.1 (+34.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -10.8 (+23.2) | 139.7 (+30.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-16 |
| Home | 11-2 | 2-13 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#156) | -14.0 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#235) | -2.86 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#220) | -4.21 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#60) | 0.369 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 9.7% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 80.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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