Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -275 KENN +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +1 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -7.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -1.8 (-0.8) | 155.2 (+13.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -4.4 (-3.4) | 160.0 (+9.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -5.5 (-4.5) | 157.9 (+11.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -5.0 (-4.0) | 158.5 (+10.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | KENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-9 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#289) | -5.1 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#340) | 1.15 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.30 (#329) | 1.06 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.297 (#348) | 0.526 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | KENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 23.9% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 34.9% |
Game Analysis
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