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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–12 on winners spread MAE 9.5 58 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Navy @ UC San Diego +11.0 141.6 83% 55–73 ✓
Elon @ Holy Cross -1.8 148.3 42% 83–69 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ California Baptist +7.7 133.2 73% 62–66 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Santa Clara +18.0 147.1 90% 63–65 ✓
Jacksonville State @ North Alabama +7.2 141.1 74% 59–61 ✓
Texas Southern @ Creighton +25.3 139.9 91% 50–82 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +7.7 159.1 80% 100–81 ✗
Northern Colorado @ New Mexico State +4.4 140.6 69% 71–76 ✓
Morgan State @ BYU +26.1 160.7 91% 50–93 ✓
Portland @ Nevada +18.6 143.1 89% 83–108 ✓
Wyoming @ Furman +3.1 146.4 64% 78–71 ✗
Oakland @ Drake +2.4 141.4 64% 77–85 ✓
Southern Miss @ Utah Valley +3.0 132.0 66% 65–67 ✓
Holy Cross @ IU Indianapolis -1.1 138.7 44% 74–61 ✓
Providence @ Georgia -2.9 133.8 38% 71–64 ✓
North Texas @ Towson +1.1 123.1 57% 65–39 ✗
UConn @ Indiana -11.0 148.0 17% 77–57 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ South Alabama +2.1 129.4 50% 74–86 ✓
UT Martin @ Prairie View A&M +0.3 143.7 49% 66–78 ✓
Manhattan @ Central Connecticut +4.7 135.8 60% 67–63 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +10.8 135.8 83% 64–76 ✓
Boise State @ Clemson +9.0 135.0 79% 68–85 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ UMBC +6.1 142.1 72% 79–94 ✓
Charleston @ Coastal Carolina +4.3 146.7 66% 80–72 ✗
Northwestern @ Mississippi State +6.7 129.9 74% 57–66 ✓
Weber State @ Colgate -4.9 128.1 28% 55–57 ✗
Grambling @ Iowa State +26.3 145.2 91% 37–92 ✓
Lindenwood @ William & Mary +5.5 147.5 71% 71–60 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Stephen F. Austin +7.9 146.8 76% 76–86 ✓
Little Rock @ Georgia State +6.4 149.8 72% 77–88 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Chattanooga +16.9 141.6 90% 63–68 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cincinnati +11.8 141.8 83% 66–90 ✓
Queens University @ Drexel +8.3 132.7 78% 52–62 ✓
Northeastern @ East Carolina +3.9 146.4 63% 82–76 ✗
UAlbany @ Quinnipiac +5.2 152.6 70% 82–85 ✓
Kansas State @ Miami +4.0 155.2 69% 83–91 ✓
Elon @ Winthrop +4.7 148.4 68% 70–78 ✓
Cornell @ Cal State Fullerton -8.5 141.9 20% 88–70 ✓
LSU @ Wake Forest +1.4 144.5 57% 86–80 ✗
Yale @ Gardner-Webb -2.9 136.0 34% 71–70 ✓
Rhode Island @ Washington State +3.8 143.9 67% 57–78 ✓
Texas @ Louisville -9.9 143.1 17% 81–80 ✓
Omaha @ Air Force +9.5 138.0 80% 56–58 ✓
Western Michigan @ Ohio State +12.2 142.0 85% 56–73 ✓
DePaul @ San Francisco +4.4 133.8 67% 54–70 ✓
American University @ Georgetown +10.4 141.8 82% 83–88 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Georgia Southern -2.8 143.9 38% 96–92 ✓
Wofford @ Virginia Tech +16.5 156.3 87% 76–98 ✓
Marshall @ Utah State +1.2 147.5 55% 60–83 ✓
Northern Iowa @ South Florida +8.1 146.1 74% 65–74 ✓
Charlotte @ George Mason -0.1 127.2 54% 54–49 ✓
Portland State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota -9.0 125.7 20% 70–76 ✗
Vermont @ Liberty +5.8 140.9 72% 61–71 ✓
Fordham @ Abilene Christian +1.2 141.0 56% 45–59 ✓
UT Arlington @ Arizona +20.8 150.7 90% 56–101 ✓
Alcorn State @ Michigan State +14.8 139.9 87% 49–81 ✓
Jackson State @ Missouri +13.5 142.8 87% 73–72 ✗
St. John's @ Utah +11.0 146.1 82% 91–82 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.