The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–12 on winners spread MAE 9.3 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Carolina @ Grand Canyon +1.7 144.7 59% 75–68 ✗
Xavier @ Saint Mary's -5.2 131.1 29% 66–49 ✓
Florida International @ Akron +6.6 143.1 76% 71–77 ✓
Brown @ USC +12.1 144.1 84% 70–81 ✓
Southern @ Illinois +9.6 144.2 79% 60–88 ✓
Cal Poly @ California Baptist +7.9 137.1 76% 58–67 ✓
UCF @ South Dakota State -10.0 142.7 18% 83–80 ✓
Kent State @ Missouri State -2.8 147.1 36% 52–56 ✗
Saint Louis @ Wichita State +2.4 140.9 60% 69–88 ✓
Dayton @ Houston +6.8 130.4 75% 55–69 ✓
Washington @ San Diego State +4.0 144.0 67% 97–100 ✓
Le Moyne @ UC Santa Barbara +9.0 148.5 78% 72–96 ✓
High Point @ Iona +1.1 153.1 55% 82–68 ✗
Oakland @ Loyola Marymount -1.3 146.1 44% 74–69 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Southern Miss +3.4 129.5 62% 74–67 ✗
Siena @ Central Michigan +4.9 140.0 71% 56–70 ✓
Norfolk State @ Florida Gulf Coast +4.6 139.4 70% 69–66 ✗
Murray State @ UNC Wilmington +10.8 147.6 83% 81–83 ✓
Drake @ Stephen F. Austin +2.0 147.8 56% 68–92 ✓
Illinois State @ Long Beach State +6.7 146.3 77% 61–52 ✗
Milwaukee @ Stetson +0.2 142.9 50% 67–85 ✓
Cornell @ Utah Valley -3.0 147.4 38% 74–61 ✓
Tennessee @ Syracuse -7.5 143.7 24% 73–56 ✓
Sacramento State @ Cal State Bakersfield -2.4 139.4 42% 71–75 ✗
Northeastern @ Kennesaw State -5.2 150.7 28% 77–79 ✗
San José State @ Hampton -7.8 141.4 21% 71–52 ✓
The Citadel @ Idaho State +0.5 130.9 53% 62–61 ✗
Indiana @ Louisville -0.2 143.1 48% 74–66 ✓
Purdue @ Gonzaga -6.6 147.3 27% 73–63 ✓
Wright State @ Louisiana +5.2 155.7 71% 91–85 ✗
Marshall @ Florida International -0.2 143.3 49% 80–69 ✓
Tarleton State @ Austin Peay -2.9 131.6 37% 66–59 ✓
Florida State @ UNLV -3.1 142.0 36% 83–75 ✓
Fordham @ Kent State +7.1 143.2 76% 72–79 ✓
Wisconsin @ Virginia +6.1 131.5 77% 65–41 ✗
South Dakota State @ George Mason +7.6 138.7 80% 71–73 ✓
Georgia Southern @ East Carolina +9.1 152.8 77% 64–82 ✓
Morehead State @ Bellarmine +6.8 145.3 76% 64–51 ✗
Rider @ Stony Brook +2.9 138.4 61% 48–55 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.