The juice of the carrot, the smile of the parrot / A little drop of claret - anything that rocks "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
Freedom Hall (KY) · November 20, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread BELL -4.5 Away covered
O/U 133.5 Under
Money BELL -163 / MORE +163
Model Predictions
Spread Total BELL win
Actual MORE +13 115 Lost
Massey BELL -11.1 (-24.1) — —
Massey Totals — 148.4 (-33.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 85% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 89% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ BELL -3.0 (-16.0) 139.0 (-24.0) 60% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML BELL -6.8 (-19.8) 145.3 (-30.3) 76% ✗
Baseline ML BELL -7.4 (-20.4) 145.9 (-30.9) 80% ✗
Baseline Plus ML BELL -7.8 (-20.8) 145.8 (-30.8) 76% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 13, 2022 MORE 62 – 55 BELL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BELL MORE
Overall 8-23 26-9
Conference 4-12 14-4
Home 6-7 14-1
Away 2-16 9-7
Neutral 0-0 3-1
Last 5 1-3 1-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 67.5 72.3
Avg Pts Against 76.8 66.3
Massey 0.1 (#180) -3.0 (#233)
Bradley-Terry 0.39 (#146) 0.23 (#158)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.47 (#152) 0.36 (#158)
RPI 0.560 (#107) 0.608 (#64)
Shooting & Four Factors BELL MORE
FG% 45.0% 41.1%
3PT% 40.0% 28.6%
REB / G 29.2 34.2
OREB / G 7.0 10.0
AST / TO 1.00 0.50
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.4% 47.2%
TOV% 18.7% 27.7%
ORB% 22.0% 30.1%
FT Rate 16.9% 24.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.5% 52.0%
Opp TOV% 18.0% 15.3%
DRB% 66.4% 69.3%
Opp FT Rate 21.1% 40.4%

Game Analysis

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