Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -8000 LEM +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +24 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -13.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -9.0 (+15.0) | 148.5 (+19.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -9.0 (+15.0) | 150.7 (+17.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -9.0 (+15.0) | 151.7 (+16.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#263) | -10.3 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#296) | -2.11 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#312) | -3.32 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#185) | 0.368 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 10.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 62.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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