I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
The Thunderdome · November 20, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UCSB -23.5 Home covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Money UCSB -8000 / LEM +3300
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCSB win
Actual UCSB +24 168 Won
Massey UCSB -13.8 (+10.2) — —
Massey Totals — 159.2 (+8.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 90% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 94% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UCSB -9.0 (+15.0) 148.5 (+19.5) 78% ✓
Baseline ML UCSB -9.0 (+15.0) 150.7 (+17.3) 78% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UCSB -9.0 (+15.0) 151.7 (+16.3) 78% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCSB LEM
Overall 16-15 15-17
Conference 9-11 9-7
Home 9-7 10-3
Away 6-7 5-14
Neutral 1-1 0-0
Last 5 0-2 0-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 73.1 70.0
Avg Pts Against 73.3 71.5
Massey -4.5 (#263) -10.3 (#337)
Bradley-Terry -1.53 (#296) -2.11 (#331)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.64 (#312) -3.32 (#331)
RPI 0.497 (#185) 0.368 (#309)
Shooting & Four Factors UCSB LEM
FG% 50.0% 37.3%
3PT% 38.2% 30.3%
REB / G 37.0 29.3
OREB / G 8.5 8.0
AST / TO 0.94 1.42
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.1% 44.6%
TOV% 23.9% 14.7%
ORB% 27.4% 18.9%
FT Rate 31.1% 10.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.7% 62.8%
Opp TOV% 9.4% 19.8%
DRB% 76.0% 67.4%
Opp FT Rate 28.1% 20.5%

Game Analysis

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