Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -213 MUR +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +2 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -15.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -10.8 (-8.8) | 147.6 (+16.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -11.4 (-9.4) | 147.1 (+16.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -9.1 (-7.1) | 146.7 (+17.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 10-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#42) | -7.5 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#68) | -1.60 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#69) | -2.38 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#260) | 0.252 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 42.6% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 80.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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