Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -200 SC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -3.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -3.9 (-10.9) | 142.6 (+0.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -1.7 (-8.7) | 144.7 (-1.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -0.9 (-7.9) | 146.5 (-3.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -2.0 (-9.0) | 146.3 (-3.3) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | SC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#39) | 5.6 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#31) | 1.93 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.64 (#28) | 2.46 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#65) | 0.598 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | SC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 40.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 79.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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