Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | IONA -213 HPU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +14 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | IONA -0.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -1.1 (-15.1) | 153.1 (-3.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -1.6 (-15.6) | 151.0 (-1.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -1.1 (-15.1) | 154.4 (-4.4) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-3 |
| Home | 9-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 82.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#136) | 1.5 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#169) | -1.55 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#161) | -1.93 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#227) | 0.169 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 39.7% |
| FT Rate | 13.4% | 36.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 8.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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