Betting Lines
| Spread | SAC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB +125 SAC -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SAC -4.4 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAC -4.4 (+8.4) | 136.7 (+9.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAC -2.4 (+6.4) | 139.4 (+6.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAC -2.1 (+6.1) | 142.0 (+4.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAC -1.6 (+5.6) | 139.1 (+6.9) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 10-24 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 2-13 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#335) | -5.8 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#290) | -0.78 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#311) | -1.06 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.319 (#337) | 0.549 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 59.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 9.4% |
| DRB% | 58.7% | 81.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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