Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -900 DAY +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +14 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -12.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -9.2 (+4.8) | 127.7 (-3.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -6.8 (+7.2) | 130.4 (-6.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -7.1 (+6.9) | 129.9 (-5.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -9.1 (+4.9) | 129.0 (-5.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 17-0 | 15-0 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#6) | 6.1 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#40) | 1.81 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#41) | 2.48 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#97) | 0.685 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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