Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SDST +275 UCF -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +3 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -13.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -11.6 (+8.6) | 142.1 (+20.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -10.0 (+7.0) | 142.7 (+20.3) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -10.7 (+7.7) | 145.1 (+17.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -10.6 (+7.6) | 146.7 (+16.3) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#314) | 5.5 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#310) | 0.56 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#300) | 0.76 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#234) | 0.514 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.3% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 45.0% |
Game Analysis
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