Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -163 WIS +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +24 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -8.7 (-32.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (-26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -6.0 (-30.0) | 126.8 (-20.8) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.1 (-30.1) | 131.5 (-25.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -5.5 (-29.5) | 132.8 (-26.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -5.4 (-29.4) | 129.3 (-23.3) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#26) | 2.4 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#25) | -0.98 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.67 (#26) | -1.47 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#51) | 0.444 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.97 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.4% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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