Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | USC -1600 BRWN +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | USC -15.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -11.9 (-0.9) | 145.2 (+5.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -12.1 (-1.1) | 144.1 (+6.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -14.6 (-3.6) | 145.1 (+5.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -12.7 (-1.7) | 147.0 (+4.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#131) | -4.9 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#157) | -3.55 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#153) | -4.93 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#126) | 0.207 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 44.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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