Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | IDST -120 CIT -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +1 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -3.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.7 (-2.7) | 129.8 (-6.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.5 (-1.5) | 130.9 (-7.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -0.4 (-1.4) | 131.4 (-8.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIT -0.6 (-0.4) | 128.0 (-5.0) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-13 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#112) | -0.4 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#270) | -1.14 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#231) | -1.09 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.374 (#304) | 0.554 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.47 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 29.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 60.8% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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