Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | USM -125 CSUF +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -5.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -4.1 (-11.1) | 131.6 (+9.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -3.4 (-10.4) | 129.5 (+11.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -3.4 (-10.4) | 129.6 (+11.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -4.3 (-11.3) | 131.2 (+9.8) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#217) | -7.7 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#240) | -1.05 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#208) | -1.40 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#259) | 0.416 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 35.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 20.9% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 39.6% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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