Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | HAMP +400 SJSU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +19 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | SJSU -11.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -10.4 (-8.6) | 142.6 (-19.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -7.8 (-11.2) | 141.4 (-18.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -8.1 (-10.9) | 141.3 (-18.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -9.0 (-10.0) | 140.9 (-17.9) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 2-16 |
| Home | 5-9 | 6-9 |
| Away | 1-12 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#321) | 2.9 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#305) | 0.44 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#309) | 1.12 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.312 (#340) | 0.616 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 42.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 43.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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