Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -300 FIU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -9.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -6.6 (-0.6) | 143.1 (+4.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -6.6 (-0.6) | 144.5 (+3.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -7.6 (-1.6) | 142.1 (+5.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#92) | -4.3 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#61) | -0.72 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#74) | -1.33 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#243) | 0.415 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 60.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 28.2% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 58.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.3% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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