Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV +120 FSU -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +8 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -3.2 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -1.0 (-7.0) | 144.6 (+13.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -3.1 (-4.9) | 142.0 (+16.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -2.4 (-5.6) | 145.5 (+12.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -3.0 (-5.0) | 144.9 (+13.1) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#146) | 4.5 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#206) | 0.42 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#245) | 0.69 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#275) | 0.620 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 25.3% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.4% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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