Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -10000 SOU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +28 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -11.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -10.3 (+17.7) | 148.6 (-0.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -9.6 (+18.4) | 144.2 (+3.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -11.3 (+16.7) | 145.1 (+2.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -9.2 (+18.8) | 146.7 (+1.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | ILL 90 – 55 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#111) | -0.3 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#202) | 0.86 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#193) | 1.37 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#159) | 0.554 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 46.5 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.0% | 60.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.7% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 60.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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