But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
State Farm Center · December 29, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ILL -33.5 Home covered
O/U 163.5 Under
Money ILL -100000 / SOU +5000
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILL win
Actual ILL +35 145 Won
Massey ILL -33.5 (+1.5)
Massey Totals 168.4 (-23.4)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Efficiency Plus ML ILL -27.5 (+7.5) 161.4 (-16.4) 91%
Baseline Tuned ML ILL -25.4 (+9.6) 161.8 (-16.8) 91%
Baseline ML ILL -33.1 (+1.9) 158.6 (-13.6) 91%
Baseline Plus ML ILL -32.8 (+2.2) 158.8 (-13.8) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 20, 2023 ILL 8860 SOU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILL SOU
Overall 28-9 17-17
Conference 15-5 11-7
Home 14-3 8-4
Away 8-2 7-12
Neutral 6-4 2-1
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.2 76.2
Avg Pts Against 68.8 80.2
Massey 21.9 (#7) -7.4 (#284)
Bradley-Terry 3.12 (#20) -1.40 (#282)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.71 (#16) -1.98 (#284)
RPI 0.631 (#22) 0.443 (#277)
Shooting & Four Factors ILL SOU
FG% 48.1% 42.3%
3PT% 35.0% 36.9%
REB / G 41.8 35.0
OREB / G 13.2 12.0
AST / TO 1.53 0.82
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.3% 48.3%
TOV% 13.9% 18.5%
ORB% 39.2% 30.1%
FT Rate 27.9% 21.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.0% 56.1%
Opp TOV% 12.8% 16.3%
DRB% 73.4% 64.9%
Opp FT Rate 14.7% 36.2%

Game Analysis

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