Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -33.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -100000 SOU +5000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +35 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -33.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.4 (-23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -27.5 (+7.5) | 161.4 (-16.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -25.4 (+9.6) | 161.8 (-16.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -33.1 (+1.9) | 158.6 (-13.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -32.8 (+2.2) | 158.8 (-13.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2023 | ILL 88 – 60 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 21.9 (#7) | -7.4 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#20) | -1.40 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.71 (#16) | -1.98 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#22) | 0.443 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 36.2% |
Game Analysis
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