Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | FGCU -250 NORF +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +3 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -10.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -4.0 (-7.0) | 135.9 (-0.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -4.6 (-7.6) | 139.4 (-4.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -4.5 (-7.5) | 137.8 (-2.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -4.9 (-7.9) | 141.0 (-6.0) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 11-3 |
| Home | 9-5 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#219) | -12.1 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#353) | -1.77 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.65 (#352) | -2.66 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.327 (#334) | 0.337 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 33.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 17.6% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 37.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 39.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.0% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.9% | 38.3% |
Game Analysis
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