Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -125 SDST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -11.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -9.6 (-7.6) | 135.8 (+8.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -7.6 (-5.6) | 138.7 (+5.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -8.0 (-6.0) | 138.3 (+5.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -8.0 (-6.0) | 136.7 (+7.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2021 | SDST 80 – 76 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#100) | -8.0 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#78) | -1.71 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#66) | -2.38 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#59) | 0.446 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 62.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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