Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
| Money | SDST -250 GMU +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -3.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -1.9 (+2.1) | 149.4 (+6.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -2.0 (+2.0) | 150.9 (+5.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -2.5 (+1.5) | 151.5 (+4.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -1.3 (+2.7) | 151.8 (+4.2) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2023 | GMU 73 – 71 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 10-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#49) | 4.7 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#86) | 0.01 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#109) | -0.16 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#85) | 0.503 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.3% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 79.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.9% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.