Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | LMU -250 OAK +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | OAK -2.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -0.5 (-5.5) | 146.8 (-3.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -1.3 (-3.7) | 146.1 (-3.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -1.2 (-3.8) | 148.4 (-5.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -1.5 (-3.5) | 148.5 (-5.5) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#175) | 2.4 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#261) | -1.02 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#261) | -1.35 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.368 (#308) | 0.530 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 42.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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