Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -240 XAV +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +17 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -9.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -4.9 (-12.1) | 132.6 (-17.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -5.2 (-11.8) | 131.1 (-16.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -6.1 (-10.9) | 132.7 (-17.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -5.8 (-11.2) | 134.1 (-19.1) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Away | 9-0 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#243) | 5.4 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#295) | -0.63 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#265) | -0.61 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#207) | 0.486 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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