Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -300 WASH +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +3 | 197 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -6.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+50.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -6.1 (-3.1) | 148.4 (+48.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -4.0 (-1.0) | 144.0 (+53.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -3.5 (-0.5) | 145.8 (+51.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -4.5 (-1.5) | 149.2 (+47.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 80.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#19) | 6.1 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#74) | 0.73 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#42) | 1.23 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#70) | 0.562 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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