Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | CMU -213 SIE +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +14 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | CMU -7.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -2.7 (+11.3) | 134.4 (-8.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -4.9 (+9.1) | 140.0 (-14.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -4.7 (+9.3) | 140.5 (-14.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -5.5 (+8.5) | 137.7 (-11.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-3 | 2-12 |
| Away | 7-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 60.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#295) | -14.4 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#226) | -1.20 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#214) | -2.78 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#188) | 0.375 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 26.2% | 26.4% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 63.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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